The Long View in Oakland, Berkeley and Piedmont Real Estate

I’m at a holiday party and someone approaches me. “Hi Dana, I understand you’re a Realtor”. Having enjoyed more than a few holiday parties over the years, I can pretty much guess what’s going to happen next. “I’m thinking about a transaction in the new year… what do you think the market will be like?” they ask. I hesitate for a split second, because although it’s tempting to make a prediction, I’m wrong about as often as I’m right. The reality is that no one knows for sure. It depends on so many factors that are impossible to predict: mortgage rates and the availability of financing, local employment, global uncertainty, the outcome of elections and consumer sentiment. What I do know is that history can help frame our current reality. I respond to my new friend with “It’s difficult to say, but I can tell you what happened last year”.

In this new year, feeling somewhat nostalgic after celebrating my first decade in the real estate business, I thought it would be interesting to expand my historical perspective to the last ten years. Sometimes a picture says it all:

(Local market consists of detached homes over $450,000 in Albany, El Cerrito, Kensington, Piedmont and the hill areas of Berkeley and Oakland)

A couple of observations. First and most striking, the number of homes sold is down 30% from ten years ago. It is a much thinner market today with not only fewer buyers, but fewer sellers. And within this thin market, buyers are not only more selective, but have fewer homes to choose from. This is in part what is driving longer marketing periods, up from 21 days on average in 2002 to 35 today (still a far cry from the statewide median number last month of 57 days as reported by the California Association of Realtors). The silver lining is that sales volume appears to have stabilized over the last two years, trending positively into 2012.

Second and what seems to garner the most attention, is price. What may be surprising to some is that over the last 10 years, median prices have actually risen 10.7%. Although in any given year we have seen large swings in either direction, a long term perspective looks far less sobering than a year-to-year analysis. Should I dare to compare our local housing market to the S&P 500 Index over the same period? The S&P 500 Index closed at 1,257.6 at the end of last year, up 9.5% over it’s close at the end of 2001.

So what does this mean for the coming year in our local market? If you approach owning a home with a long term financial perspective and as a way to create memories and enjoy a certain lifestyle, the coming year is no different than any other except …prices are at 2004 levels and interest rates are near their all time lows. Is this the right time to buy or sell? Only the next ten years will give us the answer to that question. What I can tell you is that there seems to be a greater degree of optimism as we enter 2012. There appear to be a larger number of homes coming to market this first quarter, the economic headlines have been fairly positive and my colleagues and I are seeing more serious buyers who are ready to go forward with a purchase.  This could bode well for our spring market.

I wish you all a very happy and healthy new year.